Wednesday’s Major League Baseball schedule is packed with action, featuring a full 15-game slate that provides plenty of opportunities for bettors to find value in the player prop markets. Among the most popular ways to engage with the daily slate is targeting home run props, which offer significant payouts for identifying sluggers in favorable matchups. Before finalizing your betting card for May 13, it is worth looking at the latest projections from SportsLine analyst Jacob Fetner.
Fetner established a strong track record last season, finishing up 50 units on home run picks alone. For Wednesday’s games, he has identified three specific players poised to leave the yard. While these selections offer standalone value, combining them into a parlay could result in a return exceeding 200-1, depending on the sportsbook used.
Top MLB Home Run Betting Value for Wednesday
- Ben Rice, New York Yankees (+313)
- Moises Ballesteros, Chicago Cubs (+592)
- Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins (+680)
Ben Rice: New York Yankees (+313)
New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice stands out as a top play due to his impressive performance against right-handed pitching. This season, Rice has posted a .300 batting average and a robust 1.065 OPS when facing righties. His power profile is equally lopsided, with eight of his 13 home runs coming against right-handed arms. Fetner notes that Rice has been particularly dangerous on the road lately, tallying five home runs over his last 20 away games.
The matchup against Kyle Bradish further enhances Rice’s outlook. Bradish has struggled recently, surrendering 11 earned runs and three home runs over his last 16 innings of work. Notably, three of the five homers Bradish has allowed this season have come against left-handed hitters. Despite a limited track record, Rice has already seen success against Bradish, going 3-for-5 in their career meetings with one home run already on the books.
Moises Ballesteros: Chicago Cubs (+592)
Chicago Cubs prospect Moises Ballesteros is another left-handed bat with significant power splits. All six of his home runs this year have come against right-handed pitchers, against whom he maintains an .824 OPS. While Ballesteros has endured a recent cold spell at the plate, hitting just .067 over his last 10 games, the underlying metrics suggest he is a prime candidate for a breakout performance.
He faces JR Ritchie on Wednesday, a pitcher who has shown a specific vulnerability to left-handed power. Every home run Ritchie has surrendered this season has been to a lefty. With the home run index rated at an 8 out of 10 for this matchup, Ballesteros offers high-upside value at nearly 6-to-1 odds.
Liam Hicks: Miami Marlins (+680)
Miami’s Liam Hicks enters Wednesday as one of the hottest hitters on this list. Over his last 10 road games, Hicks has connected for four home runs. Like the other selections, Hicks thrives in the platoon advantage; eight of his nine home runs this season have been hit off right-handed pitchers, against whom he carries a .313 average and a .954 OPS.
Hicks will square off against Simeon Woods Richardson, who has found life difficult against left-handed batters this season. Lefties are currently hitting .296 with an .847 OPS against him. Woods Richardson’s recent form is also a concern, as he has given up 13 earned runs and three home runs across his last three starts. Given the pitcher’s current struggles and Hicks’ recent power surge, the +680 price point provides excellent leverage.
Summary of Wednesday’s MLB Home Run Strategy
Success in MLB home run betting often comes down to identifying left-handed power hitters facing right-handed pitchers who are currently struggling with their command. Ben Rice, Moises Ballesteros, and Liam Hicks all fit this criteria perfectly for the May 13 slate. By targeting players with high OPS splits against the opposing pitcher’s handedness and looking for pitchers who have recently inflated home-run-to-fly-ball ratios, bettors can maximize their edge in one of baseball’s most volatile betting markets.
